Table 4 Accuracy of the Three Prognostic Tools
Cutoff | Sensitivity (%, 95CI) | Specificity (%, 95CI) | PPV (%, 95CI) | NPV (%, 95CI) | OA (%, 95CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
21 days | ||||||
PPI | 4.5 a | 52.0 (46.8–57.0) | 79.6 (77.5–81.7) | 39.9 (36.6–43.3) | 86.4 (85.1–87.6) | 73.9 (70.1–77.9) |
5 | 38.2 (33.3–43.2) | 89.0 (87.3–90.6) | 47.6 (42.8–52.4) | 84.7 (83.6–85.7) | 78.5 (74.5–82.6) | |
6 | 26.2 (21.9–30.9) | 92.8 (91.4–94.1) | 48.8 (42.6–55.0) | 82.9 (82.0–83.7) | 79.0 (75.0–83.2) | |
PS-PPI | 6 a | 52.5 (47.3–57.6) | 79.4 (77.3–81.5) | 40.0 (36.7–43.3) | 86.5 (85.2–87.7) | 73.8 (70.0–77.9) |
6.5 | 38.4 (33.6–43.5) | 87.3 (85.5–89.9) | 44.0 (39.6–48.6) | 84.5 (83.4–85.5) | 77.2 (73.3–81.3) | |
7 | 26.2 (21.9–30.9) | 90.9 (89.4–92.3) | 43.0 (37.4–48.7) | 82.6 (81.6–83.4) | 77.5 (73.6–81.6) | |
ChPS | 38 | 67.3 (62.3–71.9) | 66.9 (64.4–69.2) | 34.6 (32.3–36.9) | 88.7 (87.1–90.1) | 67.0 (63.3–70.8) |
39 a | 63.9 (58.9–68.7) | 70.4 (68.0–72.8) | 36.0 (33.6–38.6) | 88.2 (86.7–89.6) | 69.1 (65.4–73.0) | |
40 | 59.2 (54.1–64.2) | 74.4 (72.1–76.6) | 37.6 (34.8–40.4) | 87.5 (86.1–88.8) | 71.3 (67.5–75.2) | |
42 days | ||||||
PPI | 3.5 | 88.1 (85.6–90.3) | 33.9 (31.1–36.8) | 48.6 (47.4–49.9) | 80.1 (76.5–83.2) | 56.4 (53.1–59.9) |
4 a | 42.4 (38.9–46.0) | 84.0 (81.7–86.2) | 65.3 (61.7–68.8) | 67.3 (65.8–68.7) | 66.7 (63.1–70.5) | |
4.5 | 42.3 (38.8–45.9) | 84.0 (81.7–86.2) | 65.3 (61.6–68.8) | 67.3 (65.8–68.7) | 66.7 (63.1–70.5) | |
PS-PPI | 4 | 91.2 (89.0–93.1) | 31.1 (28.4–34.0) | 48.5 (45.9–51.1) | 83.3 (79.2–86.7) | 56.0 (52.7–59.5) |
5 | 88.6 (86.2–90.8) | 33.7 (30.9–36.6) | 48.7 (47.4–49.9) | 80.7 (77.1–83.8) | 56.5 (53.1–60.0) | |
6 a | 42.7 (39.2–46.3) | 83.9 (81.5–86.0) | 65.2 (61.6–68.7) | 67.4 (65.9–68.8) | 66.8 (63.2–70.7) | |
ChPS | 34 | 78.8 (75.7–81.6) | 49.9 (46.9–52.9) | 52.7 (51.0–54.5) | 76.8 (74.1–79.4) | 61.9 (58.4–65.6) |
35 a | 78.5 (75.5–81.4) | 50.5 (47.4–53.5) | 52.9 (51.1–54.6) | 76.7 (74.0–79.2) | 62.1 (58.6–65.8) | |
36 | 77.6 (74.5–80.5) | 51.1 (48.1–54.1) | 53.0 (51.2–54.7) | 76.3 (73.6–78.8) | 62.1 (58.6–65.8) | |
90 days | ||||||
PPI | 3.5 | 82.5 (80.2–84.5) | 38.7 (34.9–42.6) | 72.1 (70.7–73.4) | 53.5 (49.6–57.3) | 67.5 (63.9–71.4) |
4 a | 34.5 (31.9–37.3) | 87.6 (84.8–90.1) | 84.3 (81.1–87.0) | 41.1 (39.9–42.3) | 52.7 (49.5–56.1) | |
4.5 | 34.5 (31.8–37.2) | 87.6 (84.8–90.1) | 84.2 (81.1–86.9) | 41.0 (39.8–42.3) | 52.7 (49.5–56.1) | |
PS-PPI | 4 | 85.6 (83.5–87.5) | 36.1 (32.3–39.9) | 72.0 (70.7–73.2) | 56.5 (52.3–60.7) | 68.6 (64.9–72.5) |
4.5 a | 85.1 (82.9–87.0) | 37.8 (34.0–41.7) | 72.4 (71.1–73.7) | 56.8 (52.7–60.9) | 68.9 (65.2–72.8) | |
5 | 83.0 (80.8–85.1) | 38.7 (34.9–42.6) | 72.2 (70.9–73.5) | 54.3 (50.4–58.2) | 67.8 (64.2–71.7) | |
ChPS | 28 | 86.1 (84.1–88.0) | 34.0 (30.3–37.8) | 71.5 (70.2–72.7) | 56.1 (51.7–60.4) | 68.3 (64.6–72.1) |
33 | 71.4 (68.8–73.9) | 54.6 (50.6–58.5) | 75.1 (73.3–76.8) | 49.9 (47.0–52.7) | 65.6 (62.0–69.4) | |
38 a | 49.1 (46.3–52.0) | 77.0 (73.5–80.2) | 80.4 (77.9–82.7) | 44.1 (42.4–45.8) | 58.7 (55.2–62.3) | |